TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,037
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,256

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,037 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes1c2,370$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7757044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes23c1,109$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2581,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d13…44bcbacked Yes5c1,050$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick26cpaid-87.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes1c934.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.122,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes11c682.12$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.096,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes21c664.8$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.1810120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No69c634.86$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.286420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed No63c448.97$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.9725362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd043…50c8backed Yes16c431.27$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1860%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes20c381.84$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.61,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes25c371.46$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4953437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Yes29c321.38$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.89520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-74.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd721…d52dbacked No71c307.77$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.251650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes20c297.93$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.971,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c297.44$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes4c270$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes22c266.82$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.861,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes12c256.75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0233620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a18…364cbacked No65c250$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.58946.1%41 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8091…3178backed Yes11c249.08$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.46137.7%23 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No73c221.46$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.691,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes22c214.67$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.071,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes44c213.07$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.433540%14 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7926…a4febacked Yes43c203.25$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.55812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-76.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5023035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes25c197.31$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No61c194.32$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.368,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfecd…eb97backed No63c190.39$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.912864.3%18 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+67.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes30c185.94$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.224,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes17c181.38$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8356118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes10c180.73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7474926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes19c178.1$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7222028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b8…b518backed Yes16c142.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.87944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes36c140$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.416335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No68c139.66$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.692,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes19c138.92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8631029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8be2…214bbacked Yes28c132.57$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.123520%7 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-55.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xba79…0d6abacked Yes37c130.39$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.63616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-54.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes27c129.94$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2314632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf33c…bf48backed Yes19c129.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.132326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes19c123.21$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.873,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes10c123$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9615923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes11c118.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5841046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No64c117.1$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6632652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed Yes13c110.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8895852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfd30…4dadbacked Yes21c109.18$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.294852.1%25 W · 23 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes19c108.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1819123.6%45 W · 146 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No70c106.08$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.411,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No73c105.28$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3741070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes24c103.39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.292,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes19c98.24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.21,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdda…310cbacked Yes40c98.16$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.836737.3%25 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1746…24a5backed Yes18c93.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.835520%11 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c81.2$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.265,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6688…fdcebacked Yes38c78.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.13842.1%16 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab7d…399ebacked Yes24c77.37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.49714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-45.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ddc…a869backed No79c73.45$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.183450%17 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a4c…1116backed Yes27c71.3$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.138851.1%45 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa026…734cbacked Yes26c70.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.534621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ea…6f98backed No68c70.56$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.612433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa6…5289backed Yes18c68.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.961729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked No69c66.52$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4918530.3%56 W · 129 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes29c63.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.587728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ada…4908backed Yes30c62.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.597959.5%47 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes28c61.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.419,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7961…eaa8backed Yes30c61.58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.66973.9%51 W · 18 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+16.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes35c60.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1619449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes19c59.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.017,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes20c54.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7956721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd430…d313backed Yes19c52.76$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes21c52.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6967633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3e4…cdc1backed No71c51.23$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8610562.9%66 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab82…a0dcbacked No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.51070%7 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+68.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec4d…07b9backed No54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+51.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.541845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes28c49.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9812735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes21c49.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3310732.7%35 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0cab…7489backed No74c48.69$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7810371.8%74 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf547…9ebbbacked No57c48.11$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.697361.6%45 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No74c46.82$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1727167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes28c46.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3210728%30 W · 77 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbeb…32b5backed Yes28c45.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.653036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes50c43.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8518035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes25c40.94$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2434918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3141…f16abacked Yes50c38.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.495563.6%35 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb6…2ff6backed No71c34.19$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.919943.4%43 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98e9…a2f8backed No74c33.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7511872.9%86 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48ec…a20abacked No71c30.28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.923470.6%24 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.472466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No66c29.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.278663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No71c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.124,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No65c26.46$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No74c26.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.842,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb94…bffebacked Yes41c25.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65b6…129dbacked No72c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.164254.8%23 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e1…4d6dbacked No73c19.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.42065%13 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93ed…35c4backed No80c17.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.5317861.2%109 W · 69 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No65c16.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.82,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No66c16.21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5121429.4%63 W · 151 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.