Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb24175287082362086968a7954a4bd1fc532c3dc6c028dbb5f2b600621d6663d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 34c | 367.13$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.08 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 60c | 320.68$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.67 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf19…cd9abacked Yes | 47c | 213.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 25c | 162.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 13c | 154$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 33c | 146$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 137.28$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 136.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 133.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 33c | 132.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.38 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 32c | 126.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 50c | 124.96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 117$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 43c | 105$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 29c | 104.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.6 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 104$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.53 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 72c | 101.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 25c | 99.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 97.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 67c | 94.71$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed No | 47c | 94.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 36c | 92.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 90.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 27c | 84.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 34c | 78.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 19c | 77.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 34c | 77.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 30c | 75.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 68c | 74.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…7c49backed Yes | 31c | 69.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 40c | 69.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 65.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 49c | 64.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 58c | 59.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 78c | 58.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 32c | 56.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…1ab8backed Yes | 34c | 56.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…4409backed Yes | 39c | 55.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 42c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 53c | 51.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3728…a76dbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc84b…fe57backed Yes | 51c | 49.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53fd…7e7ebacked Yes | 23c | 48.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 41c | 47.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 41c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 39c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f6a5backed Yes | 45c | 42.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 77c | 41.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 32c | 41.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 50c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 49c | 32.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 42c | 31.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 26.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 48c | 26.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0221…c1a5backed No | 75c | 26.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 26.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 24.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 68c | 23.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 73c | 19.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 79c | 18.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 79c | 16.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed No | 73c | 14.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 74c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.