Tennis · resolved market
HSBC Championships: Lehecka vs. Fearnley
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb29a5620ef2055d9aa5b222e1e3ee5a19559398836446254c19d7943cb2064ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Leheckaof Lehecka, Fearnley
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Fearnley | 15c | 10,076$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.24 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf17e…0200backed Lehecka | 66c | 6,286$4,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Fearnley | 34c | 5,491$1,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,888.19 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Fearnley | 34c | 5,221$1,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,775.05 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…18debacked Lehecka | 66c | 5,152$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,751.52 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Fearnley | 31c | 1,819$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Fearnley | 33c | 1,773$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.12 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Lehecka | 66c | 1,703$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.01 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Fearnley | 33c | 1,512$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.72 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…612abacked Lehecka | 66c | 1,385$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.05 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Lehecka | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47b1…1306backed Lehecka | 68c | 922.28$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.9 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Fearnley | 33c | 909.52$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.16 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Fearnley | 33c | 563.08$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Fearnley | 33c | 548.58$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.55 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c17…de2bbacked Lehecka | 68c | 500.33$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.73 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Lehecka | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Fearnley | 39c | 411.74$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.7 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Lehecka | 68c | 409.62$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.62 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Fearnley | 31c | 399.98$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Lehecka | 68c | 368.75$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Fearnley | 35c | 317.14$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Lehecka | 64c | 242.86$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.48 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Fearnley | 5c | 222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Fearnley | 31c | 209.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Lehecka | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Lehecka | 69c | 145.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Fearnley | 37c | 144$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…4b3ebacked Lehecka | 66c | 139.53$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Fearnley | 36c | 139.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e86…1f02backed Fearnley | 34c | 132.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed Lehecka | 70c | 110.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Fearnley | 36c | 110.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Lehecka | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Lehecka | 67c | 92.05$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Lehecka | 68c | 72.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef1…4fa2backed Lehecka | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked Fearnley | 34c | 29.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Lehecka | 68c | 25.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.