Fifa International · resolved market
Will USA be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2a298aa2c8d3b74615b7299f9380bfcb1537eb6105636f274e7848e81db69d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2567…fc9dbacked Yes | 33c | 299.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe87…062abacked Yes | 49c | 204.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 22c | 171.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 126.79$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 54c | 115.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +7.7wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 92.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 221 | 25.8%57 W · 164 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked No | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…8c5fbacked No | 73c | 68.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -8.9wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x977e…f24abacked Yes | 39c | 51.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 47.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e92…395abacked Yes | 31c | 41.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 28.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 198 | 74.7%148 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USA be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Mexico be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.