Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2c3996879f13613c8faa490bcabe14218c5eb1b4e016621c07f5158980a374f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fonsecaof Ruud, Fonseca
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1925…4654backed Ruud | 45c | 6,561$2,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,952.55 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +78%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Fonseca | 55c | 5,288$2,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,379.62 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Fonseca | 53c | 3,657$1,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,718.76 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Ruud | 47c | 3,134$1,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,472.52 | 625 | 45.4%284 W · 341 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Fonseca | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.99 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ae…c975backed Fonseca | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.91 | 215 | 37.2%80 W · 135 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Ruud | 46c | 850$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391 | 1,161 | 37.6%437 W · 724 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked Ruud | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…3170backed Ruud | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Ruud | 47c | 425.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Fonseca | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…abd0backed Ruud | 45c | 211.75$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 289 | 47.8%138 W · 151 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Fonseca | 54c | 199.96$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.98 | 149 | 33.6%50 W · 99 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc81…e889backed Ruud | 46c | 177.57$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.68 | 179 | 42.5%76 W · 103 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…9dbabacked Fonseca | 55c | 177.2$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.74 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Ruud | 46c | 170$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…bebdbacked Fonseca | 55c | 154.55$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.55 | 347 | 48.1%167 W · 180 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Fonseca | 54c | 97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3afb…0004backed Ruud | 47c | 84.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Fonseca | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…7cf3backed Fonseca | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3b…9ed5backed Ruud | 46c | 42.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Ruud | 46c | 42.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc94…a3b6backed Fonseca | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +5.6wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +47%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…efbfbacked Ruud | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Ruud | 47c | 30.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Ruud | 45c | 30.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4edf…f16fbacked Ruud | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Ruud | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fonseca | 78c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…5805backed Fonseca | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x113e…ca7cbacked Fonseca | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5)this page
- Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao FonsecaJoao Fonseca won
- Ruud vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Ruud vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs FonsecaFonseca won
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-2.5) vs Fonseca (+2.5)Fonseca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.