Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs Fonseca
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda4de6d9ff64437369f66a08ae0f84bc36c8a716be9c5f2452e1e18f84c7c8f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fonsecaof Ruud, Fonseca
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Fonseca | 64c | 2,662$1,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.2 | 4,411 | 51.8%2,286 W · 2,125 L | +137.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7767…4fb2backed Fonseca | 56c | 1,772$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.22 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…fb90backed Ruud | 56c | 1,757$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.4 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…be6dbacked Ruud | 40c | 1,600$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Fonseca | 41c | 1,418$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.4 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Ruud | 55c | 910.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ruud | 33c | 775.53$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.47 | 9,231 | 44.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L | -241.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…a84abacked Ruud | 47c | 651.33$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.92 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed Fonseca | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 308 | 27.6%85 W · 223 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Fonseca | 46c | 492.55$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.88 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ruud | 46c | 471.02$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.55 | 4,584 | 48.3%2,215 W · 2,369 L | +35.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Fonseca | 42c | 468.69$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.84 | 386 | 46.4%179 W · 207 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74b…4e15backed Fonseca | 44c | 436.73$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.73 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Ruud | 42c | 421.58$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.68 | 4,882 | 38.8%1,892 W · 2,990 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Ruud | 64c | 377.29$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,011 | 41.4%419 W · 592 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…cc1bbacked Ruud | 54c | 369.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…f2abbacked Ruud | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 433 | 34.9%151 W · 282 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Ruud | 61c | 326.72$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.3 | 155 | 32.9%51 W · 104 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Ruud | 58c | 274.11$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.98 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd939…9045backed Fonseca | 61c | 250$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +32%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Fonseca | 43c | 225.61$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.34 | 357 | 30.5%109 W · 248 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Ruud | 57c | 202.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.7 | 287 | 47.7%137 W · 150 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357c…7dfebacked Fonseca | 43c | 202.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Ruud | 27c | 195$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…541abacked Fonseca | 42c | 190.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.48 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Ruud | 58c | 184.45$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.98 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a2…8613backed Ruud | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Fonseca | 36c | 174.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.16 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Fonseca | 42c | 168.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.2 | 6,998 | 39.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L | -16.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1f2abacked Ruud | 59c | 161.32$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.18 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Fonseca | 55c | 158.37$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 376 | 45.7%172 W · 204 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Fonseca | 42c | 129.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Ruud | 50c | 128$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7288…9ec5backed Ruud | 22c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +5.7wins | +0.29per pick | 16cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Ruud | 50c | 121.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 5,377 | 48.7%2,617 W · 2,760 L | +16.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Fonseca | 42c | 119.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.59 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa5…01b3backed Fonseca | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Ruud | 45c | 107.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7538…6ca6backed Ruud | 59c | 99.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Ruud | 58c | 94.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Fonseca | 53c | 93.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Fonseca | 58c | 89.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 6,411 | 54.4%3,486 W · 2,925 L | +283.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Ruud | 25c | 66.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 176 | 17%30 W · 146 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…f792backed Ruud | 58c | 65.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Ruud | 47c | 63.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf76…ffeabacked Ruud | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 345 | 29.3%101 W · 244 L | -35.8wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…6e9bbacked Ruud | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 282 | 49.3%139 W · 143 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Ruud | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Ruud | 53c | 59.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 3,204 | 40.5%1,299 W · 1,905 L | +28.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Fonseca | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 2,111 | 56.1%1,184 W · 927 L | +42.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…a1d0backed Fonseca | 53c | 53.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Ruud | 32c | 52.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…d5d0backed Ruud | 59c | 52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 247 | 62.3%154 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Ruud | 59c | 49.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 160 | 18.1%29 W · 131 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…bdb8backed Fonseca | 64c | 46.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 152 | 63.8%97 W · 55 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Fonseca | 48c | 45.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 1,773 | 48.6%861 W · 912 L | +28.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…9248backed Fonseca | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…aa69backed Ruud | 58c | 43.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…c6efbacked Ruud | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 266 | 40.6%108 W · 158 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…c54bbacked Fonseca | 52c | 38.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Ruud | 50c | 37.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2,754 | 53.8%1,481 W · 1,273 L | +71.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Ruud | 72c | 37.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -8.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec3…e330backed Ruud | 55c | 37.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 427 | 47.8%204 W · 223 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Ruud | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 6,419 | 46.4%2,978 W · 3,441 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3afb…0004backed Fonseca | 42c | 33.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…2365backed Ruud | 35c | 30.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…8104backed Ruud | 59c | 24.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Fonseca | 60c | 21.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…5805backed Ruud | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs Fonsecathis page
- Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao FonsecaJoao Fonseca won
- Ruud vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Ruud vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5)Fonseca won
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-2.5) vs Fonseca (+2.5)Fonseca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.