Tennis · resolved market
Ruud vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3325bc822faa20b5db358c84ec679bae125fba3571e4f935f1f38979c30f3edf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 40c | 3,424$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.68 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc827…c066backed Over | 62c | 3,234$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.56 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…60d9backed Over | 62c | 2,545$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.58 | 142 | 52.8%75 W · 67 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 39c | 2,282$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.03 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 42c | 1,042$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.48 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74f…acbbbacked Over | 60c | 827.92$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.92 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21e8…b85ebacked Over | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 35c | 620$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.6 | 478 | 54.8%262 W · 216 L | +25.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 39c | 606.8$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.3 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed Under | 26c | 368.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.35 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.52per pick | 23cpaid | +259.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…db18backed Over | 62c | 354.84$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.84 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0806…4adabacked Over | 59c | 341.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.14 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…4ed7backed Over | 61c | 326.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.12 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 41c | 269.85$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.14 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…77eebacked Over | 57c | 176.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.89 | 819 | 33.1%271 W · 548 L | -30.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…7661backed Over | 58c | 167.34$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 233 | 52.8%123 W · 110 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 56c | 136.77$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…b331backed Over | 60c | 105$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca1…4268backed Over | 61c | 82.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 155 | 31.6%49 W · 106 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…2deebacked Under | 22c | 69.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 40c | 53.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 221 | 53.4%118 W · 103 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…4ec7backed Over | 57c | 49.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e77…303fbacked Over | 56c | 41.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 158 | 56.3%89 W · 69 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 40c | 29.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Over | 57c | 28.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Over | 54c | 18.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Over | 54c | 18.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 255 | 50.6%129 W · 126 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ruud vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5this page
- Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao FonsecaJoao Fonseca won
- Ruud vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs FonsecaFonseca won
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5)Fonseca won
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-2.5) vs Fonseca (+2.5)Fonseca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.