TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Over 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,331
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,204

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,331 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa4f9…9419backed Under 3.542c5,221$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,190.0630827.6%85 W · 223 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Under 3.533c4,088$1,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.149843.9%43 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe89a…928abacked Under 3.51c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-63.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Under 3.534c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.9768935%241 W · 448 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4c3…60d9backed Over 3.566c1,655$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.1514252.8%75 W · 67 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc827…c066backed Over 3.566c1,515$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.152860.7%17 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+29.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over 3.552c1,461$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.976,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 3.533c1,372$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.357,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Under 3.534c1,367$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.7958745.7%268 W · 319 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf515…0805backed Over 3.567c1,269$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.663066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x98bd…8a55backed Over 3.567c1,225$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.768845.5%40 W · 48 L-9.5wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-18.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6859…fb90backed Under 3.554c1,214$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.743740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-25.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under 3.532c1,064$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.514,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over 3.569c1,000$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.259,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ad8…b8dbbacked Under 3.532c798$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.376051.7%31 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Over 3.566c700$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2383060%18 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick58cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae4…714cbacked Over 3.559c676$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.682951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x246d…c74dbacked Over 3.569c660.52$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.9318053.9%97 W · 83 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79aa…1168backed Over 3.567c645.21$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.31922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-64.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Over 3.569c561.13$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.611,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed Over 3.558c518.63$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.8826555.8%148 W · 117 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ea1…c38ebacked Over 3.546c500$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2701050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+42.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over 3.570c500$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.54,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9da…1b16backed Over 3.560c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Over 3.555c484.52$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.0223653.4%126 W · 110 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over 3.567c454.54$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15011149.5%55 W · 56 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under 3.531c442.02$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.0367144.7%300 W · 371 L+30.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed Over 3.557c439.26$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.053040%12 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Under 3.532c424.75$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9273748%354 W · 383 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Over 3.568c424.75$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.9252152.2%272 W · 249 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee12…c850backed Over 3.566c418.39$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.624470.5%31 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Under 3.535c393.79$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.117,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc74b…4e15backed Under 3.531c388.78$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1205928.8%17 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Over 3.558c349.15$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.7127753.4%148 W · 129 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed Over 3.555c342.98$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.3424856.9%141 W · 107 L+16.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Under 3.531c333$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2338952.2%203 W · 186 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9796…8718backed Over 3.560c327.73$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.096535.4%23 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6c…8738backed Over 3.566c319.15$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Over 3.565c306.22$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.221,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x407a…6ebdbacked Over 3.566c303.09$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.053100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+35.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3652…2c8bbacked Under 3.533c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-33.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Over 3.568c302.9$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.9365157.1%372 W · 279 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Over 3.566c299.99$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1024440.9%18 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf38…1020backed Over 3.566c297.75$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.541546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-6.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c6e…542dbacked Over 3.575c285.43$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.5619756.3%111 W · 86 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd9f…f8ddbacked Over 3.568c246.92$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.292254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8a6…d7a8backed Over 3.566c227.27$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.275100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9565…9ea9backed Over 3.568c208.98$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.982860.7%17 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6195…388abacked Under 3.532c196$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7218850%94 W · 94 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Under 3.533c180$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.492138.4%354 W · 567 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9baa…2a63backed Over 3.567c171.13$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.134072.5%29 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+12.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6134…c8ccbacked Over 3.566c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5234957.6%201 W · 148 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under 3.533c150.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.751,24551.9%646 W · 599 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Over 3.567c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2532554.2%176 W · 149 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c67…a479backed Over 3.568c145.79$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6525751.8%133 W · 124 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed Under 3.530c135$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.526457.6%152 W · 112 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Under 3.535c130$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.51,15148.7%560 W · 591 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b2…5805backed Over 3.567c113.73$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.743246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4537…fd02backed Over 3.566c113.64$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6438951.9%202 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc9f…21f7backed Over 3.565c112.42$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.356266.1%41 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d84…7fc0backed Under 3.545c110.56$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.251050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Over 3.567c109.46$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1286470%605 W · 259 L+43.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x975e…f875backed Over 3.565c108.36$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.365862.1%36 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Under 3.533c99.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.29244.6%41 W · 51 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c75…978ebacked Over 3.555c99.98$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.991643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9825…9ffcbacked Over 3.555c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9149943.5%217 W · 282 L+2.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4bda…7da1backed Over 3.566c90.91$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.911573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.24per pick49cpaid+57.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x424c…82b5backed Under 3.529c90$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.18555.3%47 W · 38 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Over 3.555c85.45$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.451,77648.6%863 W · 913 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2712…eb71backed Under 3.516c85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.851533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+123.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Under 3.532c80$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.638741.1%159 W · 228 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0417…9248backed Over 3.566c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.768154.3%44 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf75…262fbacked Over 3.566c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.76666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05ea…9524backed Over 3.567c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.631338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Over 3.555c72.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.733,42439.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L-12.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b35…1dcebacked Over 3.546c65.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2210554.3%57 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18f6…b00bbacked Over 3.566c60.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.618565.9%56 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b9f…bb56backed Over 3.567c59.7$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+31.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed Under 3.535c57.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2058453.1%310 W · 274 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xefd1…c520backed Under 3.535c54.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930948.9%151 W · 158 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0755…7821backed Under 3.535c51.11$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed Over 3.556c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225466.7%36 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x44be…76b1backed Over 3.567c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.57153.5%38 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87d6…551abacked Over 3.566c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178356.6%47 W · 36 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over 3.562c47.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.852,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48e4…4d8cbacked Over 3.564c46.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.883969.2%27 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d9…c160backed Over 3.566c45.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.455453.7%29 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9aca…61fdbacked Over 3.566c45.05$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.523348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52ab…ecebbacked Over 3.568c44.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.127354.8%40 W · 33 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb25…03e5backed Over 3.568c42.44$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.583464.7%22 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdecb…e058backed Over 3.568c41.18$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.185759.6%34 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a4…3926backed Over 3.565c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1459366.8%396 W · 197 L-0.6wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92e6…8222backed Over 3.557c39.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.23759.5%22 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Under 3.540c39.83$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1616050.6%81 W · 79 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a4a…3026backed Over 3.565c37.18$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0121353.5%114 W · 99 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc78d…0bbdbacked Under 3.533c35.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.654926.5%13 W · 36 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc510…5c9fbacked Under 3.537c34.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.617360.3%44 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe30e…48c1backed Over 3.575c33.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.33560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12fa…88c6backed Over 3.560c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.33520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-66.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked Over 3.555c32.64$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6936657.7%211 W · 155 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.