Tennis · resolved market
Ruud vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe955e830dcf4f1c20f15fb45d679724172bb921a0bbeb48d282e280767078daa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 49c | 6,767$3,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,315.79 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 53c | 4,675$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,174.87 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Over | 51c | 3,360$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,646.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 47c | 3,323$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,553.59 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…0d19backed Over | 51c | 2,316$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.83 | 428 | 39.7%170 W · 258 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 578 | 42.4%245 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e8…b85ebacked Over | 50c | 1,989$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.08 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Under | 48c | 1,972$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.32 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 49c | 1,939$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.84 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…60d9backed Over | 50c | 1,828$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.1 | 142 | 52.8%75 W · 67 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f30…3aeebacked Over | 56c | 1,759$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.33 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 50c | 1,561$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.5 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed02…85f7backed Over | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…6eacbacked Over | 51c | 1,401$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.48 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 46c | 1,300$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 48c | 1,114$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.93 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Under | 50c | 1,111$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.5 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Over | 51c | 1,031$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.86 | 132 | 37.9%50 W · 82 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 48c | 872.12$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.62 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 843.61$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.07 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Over | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.23 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…a64abacked Under | 50c | 502.87$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Over | 51c | 501$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.14 | 544 | 50.6%275 W · 269 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 44c | 499.75$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.89 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…f0bfbacked Over | 54c | 454.54$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.88 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0806…4adabacked Over | 50c | 452.97$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.41 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Under | 48c | 424.75$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.88 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…abd0backed Under | 47c | 333$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.51 | 289 | 47.8%138 W · 151 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 47c | 329.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under | 50c | 329.61$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.09 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…541abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb441…f757backed Over | 51c | 270$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2af…e3bcbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…102abacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Over | 50c | 199.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.77 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 481 | 44.5%214 W · 267 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Over | 50c | 175$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Under | 49c | 140.82$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 814 | 57%464 W · 350 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Over | 53c | 122.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Under | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 584 | 53.1%310 W · 274 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Over | 53c | 101$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac15…75a4backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…0bbdbacked Under | 47c | 95.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…f218backed Over | 52c | 95.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 357 | 53.8%192 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 50c | 93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 157 | 45.9%72 W · 85 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba0…1803backed Over | 54c | 91.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 42c | 80.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfe…5c6cbacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…49b1backed Under | 42c | 65.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ea…9524backed Over | 51c | 60.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…82b5backed Under | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…4ec7backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f51…43debacked Over | 50c | 48.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -6.4wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked Over | 54c | 45.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…c160backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…48efbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…6da8backed Over | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024b…48b1backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ba81backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 474 | 31.9%151 W · 323 L | -21.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e4…c62abacked Under | 49c | 24.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked Over | 53c | 20.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d84…7b78backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ruud vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5this page
- Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao FonsecaJoao Fonseca won
- Ruud vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs FonsecaFonseca won
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5)Fonseca won
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-2.5) vs Fonseca (+2.5)Fonseca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.