La Liga · resolved market
Villarreal CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2d19d2f8d8f6092b7f9f39e98294e6b07bf03bb2adf1e1413865814c5b9aeb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 80c | 9,000$7,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,200 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 20c | 8,966$1,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,173.18 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Under | 68c | 2,977$2,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,015.38 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 32c | 1,706$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.33 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 27c | 1,500$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 29c | 990.72$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.62 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 16c | 584.18$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.89 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…ca90backed Under | 79c | 332.71$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.84 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Over | 31c | 205.48$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 52c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…d776backed Over | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 32c | 126.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 114 | 27.2%31 W · 83 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 39c | 111.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789b…4c08backed Over | 22c | 93.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.34 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 24c | 91.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.55 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked Over | 31c | 91.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 150 | 34.7%52 W · 98 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 20c | 67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…edbabacked Under | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Under | 73c | 42.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -5.7wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -34%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Villarreal CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 3.5this page
- Villarreal CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Villarreal CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 1.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.