Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2d293c54536a966d0e76751ce2fcf7238fdfce196fa3b78db2e0b033f7b8e4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 288.43$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 238.5$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 160.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 130.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 120.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…57d6backed Yes | 22c | 119.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 24c | 113.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 17c | 107.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 75c | 106.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…a6b5backed Yes | 24c | 99.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 96.32$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 21c | 94.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 18c | 78.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 22c | 67.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 18c | 63.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 63.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 18c | 62.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 24c | 62.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 21c | 56.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 24c | 55.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 50.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 23c | 45.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 37.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 31c | 36.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 26.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 25.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 76c | 18.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 18.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 15.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 42°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.