Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd611a348ebd12ed612fd63fed7036baf787c48139342b3542fb5a925ef9d7b6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 254.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 238.5$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.42 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 51c | 221.72$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.22 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 193.89$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 190.79$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.47 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 171.65$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.48 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 168.62$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 167.27$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 33c | 145.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.84 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 19c | 140.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 120.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 113.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 42c | 111.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 41c | 109.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…a6b5backed Yes | 37c | 99.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 79c | 87.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 50c | 82.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 49c | 77.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 35c | 72.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 41c | 69.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 61c | 66.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 65.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 18c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…c0fabacked Yes | 50c | 57.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 56.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9a40…840ebacked Yes | 38c | 50.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59ff…6494backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 41c | 49.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 48.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 46.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 44.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 43.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 61c | 42.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 35c | 41.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…852abacked Yes | 78c | 38.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 37.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 35.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 36c | 34.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 41c | 34.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 37c | 32.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 78c | 31.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 26.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 24.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 65c | 21.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 62c | 20.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 19.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 62c | 18.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…7c05backed No | 61c | 17.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d25…17b6backed No | 63c | 16.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 78c | 15.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 42°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.