Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63f4ce97eb60b5ea9ce1dab1cd5d9b7f979b36ba41bce1e53653132d17a51ab8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 402.18$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 29c | 344.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 331.42$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 22c | 327.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 230.5$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 210$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1906…c647backed No | 75c | 200.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 172.8$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 154.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 152.45$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…57d6backed No | 72c | 139.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 28c | 134.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ed…21fdbacked No | 76c | 130.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 69c | 102.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 71c | 102.2$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…a6b5backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 29c | 99.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 91.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 29c | 90.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 26c | 90.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 84.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 78c | 81.26$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 80.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 77.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 27c | 77.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…c0fabacked Yes | 26c | 76.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ff…6494backed Yes | 28c | 71.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 58.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 74c | 57.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2309…69e6backed Yes | 32c | 51.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701d…d115backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x208d…df71backed Yes | 27c | 49.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 47.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed No | 71c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 71c | 42.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 71c | 40.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 37.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 33.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 28.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 71c | 28.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 72c | 27.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…00b2backed No | 71c | 27.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 73c | 27.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 78c | 23.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 18.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 71c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 72c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 70c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 42°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.