Mls · resolved market
D.C. United SC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3002a985c6b8f43314312ff0e5294e3ed865828c5b32b462412ece8071b77f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 31c | 2,923$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.78 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 1,514$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.97 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 46c | 1,079$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.07 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 69c | 936.09$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.61 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked Over | 79c | 630$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4691…2a8abacked Over | 69c | 570.41$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 27c | 472.41$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 21c | 450$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 78c | 323$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 50c | 300$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.75 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f84…00edbacked Over | 55c | 294.96$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 69c | 288.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.69 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 40c | 265.18$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.98 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 46c | 224.22$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 212.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Over | 63c | 197$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 102 | 73.5%75 W · 27 L | +13.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 79c | 121$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 47c | 120.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 46c | 99.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 51c | 98.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 25c | 95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 53c | 81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over | 55c | 69.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 52c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 76c | 64.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Over | 34c | 61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 34c | 58.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 54c | 54.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 76c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 52c | 41.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 60c | 40.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 40c | 31.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 43c | 29.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Over | 72c | 23.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 70 | 74.3%52 W · 18 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +39%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…dda1backed Over | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d62…49c5backed Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- D.C. United SC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5this page
- D.C. United SC vs. St. Louis City SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- D.C. United SC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- D.C. United SC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- D.C. United SC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: D.C. United SC (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)D.C. United SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.