Mls · resolved market
D.C. United SC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4bc09a38e6383336a0ff6cb613f44fb5d64426e7f941bf38c788fb7b6c9ce49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc72d…fc21backed Under | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,749.99 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 55c | 4,903$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Under | 50c | 4,009$2,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,004.08 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 102 | 73.5%75 W · 27 L | +13.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 49c | 1,959$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.73 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 55c | 1,467$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.66 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 23c | 1,227$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.53 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 77c | 1,226$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.97 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 30c | 999.98$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.44 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 49c | 735.04$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.4 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 53c | 686.42$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.23 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 52c | 581.95$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.84 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 47c | 572.69$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.75 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 487.37$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.66 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 66c | 423.88$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.27 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 55c | 381.37$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 47c | 365.24$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…a11dbacked Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 38c | 327.95$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.68 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 63c | 315.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.02 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 65c | 314.94$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.61 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 35c | 299.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 53c | 299.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.99 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 232.71$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.51 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 75c | 178.25$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 174$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.84 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 44c | 173$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 40c | 128.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 46c | 119.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 54c | 107.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 51c | 107.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 45c | 100.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 16c | 96.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 55c | 90.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 18c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 20c | 82.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 103 | 19.4%20 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 49c | 69.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 53c | 67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 59.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 33c | 55.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 36c | 44.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 41.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…dd64backed Under | 46c | 39.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 62c | 38.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…1d1fbacked Over | 55c | 36.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 32.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc986…1654backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +16.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…2bc4backed Over | 67c | 27.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 68c | 27.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 51c | 25.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 46c | 24.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Over | 57c | 22.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Under | 49c | 22.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 54c | 20.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 60c | 20.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -12.3wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -94.4%equal weight | 25-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…82bcbacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Under | 52c | 19.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac7…8d58backed Under | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 70c | 17.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- D.C. United SC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5this page
- D.C. United SC vs. St. Louis City SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- D.C. United SC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- D.C. United SC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- D.C. United SC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: D.C. United SC (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)D.C. United SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.