Mls · resolved market
Will Austin FC vs. FC Dallas end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb30fb5b21beb5eb2f18f567188ecdf3082acc319eb9ca2b34cfc3019c5ee913a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0da…1f80backed Yes | 27c | 15,000$4,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,050 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 73c | 8,548$6,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,307.95 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 70c | 5,576$3,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645.79 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a6…a2ebbacked Yes | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 27c | 1,592$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.41 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 73c | 1,491$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.7 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 1,432$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.64 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 73c | 1,316$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.2 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 17c | 748.05$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.78 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 78c | 668.87$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.49 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed No | 73c | 600$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 15c | 424.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.57 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 73c | 355$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.85 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 47c | 326.04$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.11 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 79c | 272.71$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 25c | 269.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 19c | 256$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 73c | 256$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 73c | 249$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 23c | 199.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Yes | 26c | 172$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed No | 74c | 143.67$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Yes | 22c | 141.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 135.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 71c | 130.41$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 37c | 126.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4923…a3b7backed Yes | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dedfbacked No | 74c | 116.07$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 19c | 110.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 70c | 109.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 30c | 109.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…9f72backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ce…27bdbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 68c | 99.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked No | 69c | 98.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 98.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 61c | 97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 35c | 78.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…9ccbbacked Yes | 21c | 77.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Yes | 27c | 75.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…0000backed Yes | 15c | 68.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 27c | 67.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb6…9fe0backed Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 18c | 59.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a58…327dbacked Yes | 28c | 57.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 70c | 55.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed No | 56c | 52.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef1…4a76backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed No | 56c | 37.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 76c | 37.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 36c | 33.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 31.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 74c | 28.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3e…b9c5backed No | 48c | 22.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed No | 61c | 21.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Austin FC vs. FC Dallas end in a draw?this page
- Will Austin FC win on 2026-08-16?No won
- Will FC Dallas win on 2026-08-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.