Mls · resolved market
Will Austin FC win on 2026-08-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7eb251af51c84d11289ce5f2901dcbf8a1fd75ff1baf4f30210e934b3cfb5126
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 33c | 3,444$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.61 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 67c | 2,001$1,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.33 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 67c | 1,770$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.1 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,578$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.74 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 18c | 1,297$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.95 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 66c | 802.44$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.86 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 15c | 799.76$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.25 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc5…e563backed Yes | 25c | 782.68$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…961ebacked Yes | 34c | 558.44$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.87 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 66c | 520.71$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.04 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 74c | 517$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.42 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…86e1backed Yes | 10c | 470$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed No | 73c | 411.2$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.57 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 77c | 405.09$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 27c | 405$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed No | 67c | 295$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 21c | 223.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 23c | 211.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed No | 66c | 205$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…aeddbacked Yes | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Yes | 32c | 183.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 67c | 181.15$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.93 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 67c | 180.95$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.41 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 68c | 169$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 23c | 162.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Yes | 33c | 161.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 22c | 156.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed No | 75c | 153.85$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 33c | 142.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d54…d454backed Yes | 33c | 137.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked No | 77c | 133$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 15c | 114$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 67c | 112.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed No | 78c | 102$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 20c | 98.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 25c | 96.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Yes | 25c | 93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…0000backed No | 79c | 88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9299…8f9cbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 67c | 78.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 67c | 78.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0da…1f80backed Yes | 33c | 71.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 65.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 67c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 74c | 62.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 78c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 24c | 55.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Yes | 35c | 47.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 76c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 45.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee71…9204backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.40per pick | 38cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…5dedbacked No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed No | 67c | 33.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 68c | 29.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fde…095bbacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 67c | 24.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 68c | 20.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed No | 67c | 18.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 140 | 62.1%87 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Austin FC win on 2026-08-16?this page
- Will Austin FC vs. FC Dallas end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Dallas win on 2026-08-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.