Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb32177d87724866a7ae56756f0af0379ee01bffa2e93d533f0a429bb5d320810
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 30c | 2,269$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,595.34 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 564.84$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.17 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 76c | 485.17$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.47 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 29c | 383.97$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.66 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c26…8ff0backed Yes | 77c | 347.29$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 59c | 310.98$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.79 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 68c | 284.71$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.6 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 53c | 260$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 245.73$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 35c | 199.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…86d9backed Yes | 39c | 195.26$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 67c | 186.56$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 71c | 181.44$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.69 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 37c | 175$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.84 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 155.14$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 66c | 145.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 64c | 144.21$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 102.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 42c | 101.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 93.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 60c | 84.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 66c | 74.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 67c | 72.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 39c | 71.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 72c | 64.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…997fbacked Yes | 60c | 63.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 33c | 62.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 79c | 62.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked No | 67c | 61.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 74c | 60.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 27c | 53.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 25c | 53.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 34c | 48.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 43.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 40c | 39.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 61c | 39.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 68c | 35.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 67c | 34.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 65c | 34.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 56c | 32.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 72c | 32.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 25.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 80c | 24.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 24.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcc…788cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed Yes | 70c | 19.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 69c | 19.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…4f5abacked No | 69c | 19.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 60c | 18.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 58c | 18.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 71c | 18.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 58c | 17.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc086…6882backed Yes | 60c | 17.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…128abacked No | 63c | 16.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 72c | 15.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…2e80backed No | 68c | 15.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 69c | 14.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 73c | 14.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed No | 76c | 13.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 72°F or higher on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 64-65°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 66-67°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.