Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf217e2c9ca74dd89b62b8178d6b6b1c21d237f7cdfd1db930c8e42a24e1c0adf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 514.24$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 514.1$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.25 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 61c | 327.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.84 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 38c | 285.09$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.77 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 37c | 256.26$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.68 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 35c | 232.69$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 34c | 161.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 27c | 158.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 151$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 67c | 147.41$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 66c | 124.01$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 68c | 110.72$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 62c | 109.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 104.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 99.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 40c | 89.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 27c | 81.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 73.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 71c | 70.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 69c | 70.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 23c | 69.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 63.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 60.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 59.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 55.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9921…3270backed Yes | 41c | 55.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked Yes | 33c | 54.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda8…e905backed Yes | 23c | 46.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 65c | 45.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 25c | 44.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b5…326dbacked No | 73c | 33.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 34c | 29.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 67c | 29.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 42c | 28.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked Yes | 38c | 28.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 70c | 28.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 65c | 27.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…4f5abacked No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…128abacked No | 64c | 17.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 16.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 68c | 15.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 72°F or higher on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 64-65°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 66-67°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on April 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.