Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 72°F or higher on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfe0bf80b6d462a0e90a16dbeaac437f2d66c5c68d9e7d5c86d572271a8b0d6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 721.36$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 36c | 555.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 39c | 365.18$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.75 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 282.97$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 254.65$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 66c | 208.67$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 34c | 163.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 64c | 150.38$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 37c | 136.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 31c | 120.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 19c | 117.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 29c | 110.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 16c | 104.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 103.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 66c | 101.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed No | 78c | 94.03$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 76c | 79.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…a49abacked No | 64c | 75.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +41%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 75c | 69.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 42c | 68.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 67.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 37c | 67.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9921…3270backed Yes | 42c | 64.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 70c | 59.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 41c | 58.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b5…326dbacked Yes | 39c | 58.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 59c | 53.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 31c | 50.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 80c | 49.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 35c | 49.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 64c | 44.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed No | 65c | 38.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 42c | 38.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 31c | 36.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 40c | 35.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb4…5fd3backed Yes | 29c | 35.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 70c | 34.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d20…8770backed No | 58c | 33.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…2e92backed Yes | 44c | 31.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 46c | 31.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…59b0backed No | 66c | 30.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f93…07b1backed Yes | 41c | 29.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 67c | 28.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 40c | 27.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 66c | 27.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed No | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x857f…ddb7backed No | 59c | 25.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 41c | 25.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 55c | 24.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ee…3c21backed No | 80c | 23.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.8wins | -0.57per pick | 77cpaid | -75%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb5…3253backed No | 70c | 22.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2a…ba61backed No | 64c | 22.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…935bbacked No | 59c | 21.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 76c | 21.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 60c | 17.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed No | 65c | 15.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 14.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…c6d8backed No | 75c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…36c8backed No | 79c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 72°F or higher on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 64-65°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 66-67°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.