Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 33-34°F on December 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3544885759fe97c1aa1ea8456f0f34734f27ae0d1f021f366a9378e3eaf1253
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc720…8f88backed Yes | 4c | 2,234$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 1,315$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.49 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 69c | 496.13$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.65 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 19c | 494$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.11 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…885fbacked No | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked No | 69c | 277$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.14 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 70c | 235.21$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.16 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 29c | 222.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 39c | 213.28$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.03 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 26c | 200.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed Yes | 33c | 200.34$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 23c | 189.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed Yes | 35c | 180.71$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 30c | 156.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…f8dcbacked Yes | 28c | 152$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb2…e46ebacked Yes | 28c | 146$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde70…d7f3backed Yes | 28c | 143$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249c…dd6bbacked No | 72c | 142$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f39…6ddabacked No | 72c | 141$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 35c | 139.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ec…be8abacked Yes | 29c | 138$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed Yes | 19c | 137.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a2…2797backed Yes | 28c | 137$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d5…331dbacked Yes | 30c | 135$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d5…f618backed No | 71c | 131$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 16c | 128.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90eb…a086backed No | 72c | 128$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…db09backed No | 71c | 126$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28a…2045backed No | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 124.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 37c | 120.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe08c…cc13backed No | 77c | 115$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…9d9ebacked Yes | 10c | 109.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…fba2backed No | 68c | 105.27$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 47c | 99.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6e…02cfbacked Yes | 24c | 95.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked No | 69c | 95.09$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 14c | 93.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 36c | 92.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes | 22c | 85.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 44c | 78.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Yes | 55c | 72.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6108…feafbacked Yes | 20c | 52.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…2859backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…a437backed Yes | 45c | 44.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…3ae0backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 41c | 41.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc964…ba07backed Yes | 29c | 38.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9288…5d5fbacked Yes | 28c | 37.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 36.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 32.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…998dbacked Yes | 33c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eec…be17backed Yes | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 64c | 25.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 74c | 20.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…6e5fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebb…37c0backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 33-34°F on December 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 28°F or below on December 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 39°F or higher on December 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 29-30°F on December 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 31-32°F on December 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 35-36°F on December 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 37-38°F on December 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.