Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb389fe563b5b75c9fb8dec88d9d2b30db7545871801c160e2a84b8d23a38c346
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 1,353$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.18 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 42c | 663.6$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.17 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 66c | 559.06$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.61 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked No | 32c | 437.24$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.52 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 346.91$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 45c | 314.63$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.66 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 47c | 310.99$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.11 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 307.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 54c | 307.39$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.88 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 53c | 307.36$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.54 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 294.95$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…63f0backed No | 78c | 283.62$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.13 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 53c | 255.81$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.35 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 255.76$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.49 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 45c | 248.58$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.19 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 70c | 241$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.83 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 48c | 222.56$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.82 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…bd14backed No | 74c | 206.62$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.99 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 75c | 193.47$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed No | 6c | 188.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 44c | 185.14$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 63c | 172.25$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.08 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 43c | 162.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.94 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 33c | 150.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.31 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 146$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.94 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 52c | 143.15$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.18 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5130…818bbacked No | 56c | 142.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 56c | 141.46$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.25 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 134.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 44c | 134.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 75c | 133.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf759…0221backed Yes | 29c | 130.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 58c | 128.65$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 126.35$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…c072backed No | 57c | 123.78$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.01 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…75a4backed No | 68c | 122.15$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 116.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 53c | 115.4$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 59c | 103.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 73c | 103.8$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 55c | 99.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 71c | 99.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 35c | 97.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 51c | 93.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 50c | 92.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 46c | 89.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 78.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 78.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 52c | 77.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecd…3923backed No | 64c | 76.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -80%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 44c | 71.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 49c | 69.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 59c | 62.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 33c | 60.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 60.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed No | 58c | 60.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 60c | 60.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 72c | 58.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 61c | 58.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 74c | 56.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 72c | 50.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 41c | 50.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 42c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…28bbbacked No | 56c | 48.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 49c | 48.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e71…1ffebacked No | 57c | 47.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 64c | 45.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…81a3backed No | 59c | 45.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 59c | 45.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked No | 55c | 44.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 55c | 44.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c0…d247backed No | 70c | 42.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 55c | 42.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe498…1a5bbacked No | 54c | 38.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 37.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed No | 77c | 35.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 56c | 35.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 35.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 52c | 35.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 39c | 34.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1901…7b79backed No | 54c | 30.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde57…76a4backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 54c | 29.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…ca58backed No | 58c | 29.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked No | 56c | 29.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 53c | 28.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 52c | 27.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 52c | 27.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 73c | 27.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 54c | 26.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 53°F or below on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.