Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb4e6dce2e41b561cdea196d8442af75ef5e47992d25ed2797c10a86bb28527c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 60c | 391.5$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.66 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 374.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 255.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85f4…b3b0backed Yes | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.67 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 57c | 191.76$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 37c | 176.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 44c | 150.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 56c | 129.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 40c | 129.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 128.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 128.52$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 22c | 125.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 69c | 113.88$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 62c | 101.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 41c | 99.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 32c | 98.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 52c | 93.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 67c | 89.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 88.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 40c | 82.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 78.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 59c | 76.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 56c | 75.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 43c | 74.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 41c | 71.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 70.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 70.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 74c | 66.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 38c | 63.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 64c | 63.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 27c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 21c | 62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 60.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 25c | 59.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 33c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 60c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 54.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…0e58backed No | 58c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 59c | 50.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 34c | 46.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd371…8f17backed Yes | 54c | 44.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 51c | 43.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 66c | 42.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 54c | 42.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 61c | 41.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 46c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 50c | 39.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 40c | 37.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 35.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 32.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 37c | 32.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed No | 57c | 29.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…99d7backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 65c | 28.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 53c | 28.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 53c | 28.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 27.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked No | 61c | 26.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 63c | 26.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 68c | 26.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked No | 65c | 25.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 53c | 22.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 70c | 20.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 65c | 19.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae3…f897backed No | 68c | 15.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 53°F or below on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.