Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3ab6d51af7c63ea6163a636f78df24e9c62d183011a6c6b697ed04d67bc2ac2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 604.38$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 457.26$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.14 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 338.98$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 276.18$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 41c | 262.69$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.97 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 71c | 218.35$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 38c | 214$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.88 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 177.12$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.25 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 173.3$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 171.79$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 17c | 170.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 52c | 159.04$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.41 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 157.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 151$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 132.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 35c | 119.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 115.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.21 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 114.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 22c | 111.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 40c | 108.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 103$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 97.93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 89.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 55c | 84.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…30a5backed Yes | 44c | 81.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 40c | 80.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 46c | 76.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 75.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 74.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 73c | 65.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 74c | 64.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 43c | 63.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 75c | 58.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…5199backed Yes | 45c | 53.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 52.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 70c | 48.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 44.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 61c | 43.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…5548backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 38.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 63c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 75c | 33.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 49c | 33.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…b843backed No | 60c | 31.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 51c | 30.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de6…f3e4backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 28.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 37c | 27.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 63c | 26.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 26.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 45c | 25.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 25.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…b897backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 66c | 23.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 61c | 22.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…7444backed No | 66c | 22.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 57c | 22.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 57c | 22.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 58c | 21.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 72c | 21.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 71c | 19.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 64c | 19.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…576dbacked No | 60c | 19.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.