MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3bb2d8f00545c8f3e52298d9e3092bd2fef3e3c853ae085148e6d9bcf7882dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04e6…3914backed New York Mets | 71c | 34,697$24,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,062.27 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 29c | 28,711$8,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,326.28 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 2,500$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 29c | 2,089$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.9 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 30c | 882.93$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.88 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 61c | 713.04$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.09 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 29c | 612.34$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.32 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 18c | 593.39$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.07 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 260.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 61c | 131.55$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 128.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…69aabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 117.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 99.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 80.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked New York Mets | 62c | 75.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 50.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed New York Mets | 62c | 42.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c6…97c3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 38.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 27.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed New York Mets | 63c | 26.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.