MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2479e4ce3f6d5f9cb9671d3cc284832b36e7097797c9a6fce098dc3ed3885b6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $154,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $207,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9b9…dd41backed Over | 41c | 59,281$24,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,850.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 41,486$24,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,347.31 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Over | 39c | 4,391$1,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,697.6 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 65c | 4,216$2,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,726.34 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 54c | 3,345$1,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,813.54 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 2,501$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.57 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 62c | 1,883$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.01 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…8f07backed Over | 40c | 1,306$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.09 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 65c | 1,253$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.17 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 61c | 1,171$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.31 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 59c | 790.5$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.5 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 62c | 665.94$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.88 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 35c | 612.5$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.22 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Over | 36c | 525$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.8 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 79c | 500.01$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.01 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 62c | 399$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.38 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 64c | 311.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Under | 60c | 275$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 61c | 165.69$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.07 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 41c | 161$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.99 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 64c | 155.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 64c | 155.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 41c | 140.66$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 66c | 114.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Under | 51c | 97.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Under | 52c | 92.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 67c | 87.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 49c | 87.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 60c | 73.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 47c | 71.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 62.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 64c | 61.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 59c | 59.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2542…7821backed Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Under | 66c | 52.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Under | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Under | 68c | 47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 62c | 41.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 60c | 41.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Over | 56c | 39.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 60c | 37.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 57c | 35.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Under | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Under | 60c | 29.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 23.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Under | 72c | 23.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…3ff8backed Under | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 62cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Under | 65c | 20.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Under | 66c | 19.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 61c | 16.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Under | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.