MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd319f28eec4d50bba000e638750f1bbf6a77a1c1c29d211c892acd30b5a7dddc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6738…c215backed No | 53c | 1,071$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.88 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a18…9d39backed Yes | 51c | 920$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a0…e864backed No | 49c | 913$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…fe62backed No | 49c | 869$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a0…dd5bbacked Yes | 51c | 862$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 47c | 694.48$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.07 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed Yes | 47c | 460.98$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…766dbacked No | 53c | 301.55$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.82 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 48c | 301.04$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.98 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 49c | 287.82$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.57 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…69aabacked No | 51c | 196.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 50c | 177.15$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.58 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2288…1a0dbacked No | 53c | 102.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 50c | 92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba2c…473dbacked No | 56c | 88.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed No | 49c | 77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 47c | 61.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 46c | 53.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed No | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 190 | 41.1%78 W · 112 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 43c | 33.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Piratesthis page
- New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.