Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3f2778b9288391d1e874c108ed8a699529aa6c551c74d6c1d7afc43634d2c4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 70c | 271$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.3 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 162.4$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 21c | 161.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 30c | 138.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 74c | 133.37$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 129.76$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 80c | 125.96$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 125.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 70c | 112.78$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 29c | 110.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…994abacked Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3011…add7backed Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 75c | 108.96$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 70c | 103.33$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 24c | 92.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 77c | 88.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 81.36$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 35c | 78.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bba…a69fbacked Yes | 19c | 74.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 73.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 71.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 27c | 69.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 75c | 64.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 69c | 64.6$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 23c | 61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 33c | 60.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 26c | 57.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed Yes | 31c | 55.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 20c | 55.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 26c | 54.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…0c35backed Yes | 25c | 52.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 26c | 48.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 45.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 42.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 70c | 39.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed Yes | 34c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 35.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 75c | 33.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 73c | 20.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 20.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 73c | 19.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…c545backed No | 68c | 18.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…e96abacked No | 74c | 17.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6382…acbdbacked No | 75c | 17.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 17.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 74c | 16.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or below on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.