Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19990433c7e0caa18b0b5d84bbef91e75cdedb8ffdcbca7eaa3ebd0e8dbd9fef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 73c | 755$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.6 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 47c | 482.62$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed No | 4c | 357.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed Yes | 74c | 322.88$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.73 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 312$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 36c | 275.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 36c | 240$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.6 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 233.63$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 8c | 205.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 19c | 182.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 181.23$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 15c | 166.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 46c | 165.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.08 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 24c | 164.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 69c | 145.51$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 9c | 140.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 49c | 131.68$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 118.03$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 116.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed No | 52c | 114$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes | 47c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 36c | 77.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 55c | 74.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 74.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 61c | 74.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 42c | 70.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 46c | 69.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed No | 48c | 61.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 23c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 38c | 53.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x263d…fc4cbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab82…a0dcbacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…debfbacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 56c | 49.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 48.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 54c | 44.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 59c | 44.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed No | 42c | 41.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 35c | 40.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed Yes | 57c | 37.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0206…283bbacked Yes | 45c | 37.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 47c | 37.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 46c | 34.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 56c | 34.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked Yes | 46c | 34.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 66c | 33.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 66c | 30.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 29.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 43c | 29.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed No | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 36c | 27.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3f…d4bfbacked Yes | 51c | 27.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 55c | 27.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…d272backed Yes | 46c | 26.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32f…af2cbacked Yes | 46c | 25.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 47c | 24.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 45c | 24.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes | 60c | 24.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 48c | 23.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 58c | 21.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bc…e46bbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 58c | 19.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 63c | 18.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…2c1ebacked Yes | 58c | 17.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…5f37backed Yes | 64c | 16.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…c64dbacked Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or below on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.