Lol · resolved market
LoL: Valerion vs WLGaming Esports - Game 3 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb453ea24d7a1599bf14da0cd6c30d74064d84be927973cfe5ef72b1ddb4afe56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Valerionof Valerion, WLGaming Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d14…36fdbacked WLGaming Esports | 39c | 2,782$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.62 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +16.4wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Valerion | 62c | 1,766$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.99 | 920 | 37.5%345 W · 575 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b8…149bbacked WLGaming Esports | 23c | 688.13$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.75 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Valerion | 59c | 304.33$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.03 | 1,893 | 39.8%754 W · 1,139 L | -68.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed WLGaming Esports | 18c | 222.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 384 | 54.2%208 W · 176 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…6cb9backed Valerion | 45c | 204.28$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.79 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc81…a635backed WLGaming Esports | 40c | 197.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Valerion | 68c | 191.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 2,088 | 30.6%639 W · 1,449 L | -176.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1034…dcd6backed WLGaming Esports | 37c | 183.14$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…431abacked WLGaming Esports | 29c | 173.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked WLGaming Esports | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,482 | 13%192 W · 1,290 L | -118.0wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a63…5b30backed WLGaming Esports | 21c | 133.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 182 | 51.1%93 W · 89 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91a2…e415backed WLGaming Esports | 18c | 110.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…37dbbacked Valerion | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…c9f4backed Valerion | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 430 | 69.5%299 W · 131 L | +35.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x100c…edc9backed WLGaming Esports | 37c | 97.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed WLGaming Esports | 26c | 89.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1,213 | 39.6%480 W · 733 L | -44.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bed…5cd6backed Valerion | 60c | 74.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed WLGaming Esports | 29c | 73.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 661 | 25.7%170 W · 491 L | -94.0wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x755f…2cffbacked Valerion | 71c | 72.36$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 275 | 62.2%171 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed WLGaming Esports | 25c | 68.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 2,608 | 39.7%1,035 W · 1,573 L | -84.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…d8cabacked Valerion | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 228 | 57%130 W · 98 L | +21.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Valerion | 78c | 66.02$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 680 | 43.1%293 W · 387 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5c…a610backed Valerion | 73c | 60.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e8…65dbbacked Valerion | 78c | 52.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 111 | 62.2%69 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…8f43backed Valerion | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 233 | 44.6%104 W · 129 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df3…9ac3backed WLGaming Esports | 21c | 48.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 468 | 55.8%261 W · 207 L | +26.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed WLGaming Esports | 21c | 48.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,609 | 55.4%892 W · 717 L | +84.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…cbc6backed Valerion | 64c | 46.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec64…6eadbacked Valerion | 74c | 40.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…4c5abacked Valerion | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 210 | 64.8%136 W · 74 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…a691backed Valerion | 68c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 636 | 50.9%324 W · 312 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…db2ebacked Valerion | 74c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Valerion | 69c | 19.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 195 | 39%76 W · 119 L | -13.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Valerion | 62c | 18.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 382 | 43.5%166 W · 216 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa32…a296backed Valerion | 75c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +9.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Valerion vs WLGaming Esports - Game 3 Winnerthis page
- LoL: Valerion vs WLGaming Esports (BO5) - HLL PlayoffsValerion won
- LoL: Valerion vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 WinnerValerion won
- LoL: Valerion vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 WinnerValerion won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.