Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4540188a630ec73672ffaaffc58a93708fbff21793dbbb45dd2c543a039c426
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shelbourne FCof AFC Ajax, Shelbourne FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed AFC Ajax | 42c | 1,899$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.04 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Shelbourne FC | 60c | 1,089$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.85 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Shelbourne FC | 57c | 963.81$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.44 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked AFC Ajax | 46c | 822.17$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.77 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Shelbourne FC | 71c | 809.29$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.14 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Shelbourne FC | 64c | 475.2$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.07 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed AFC Ajax | 33c | 432.46$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.38 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed AFC Ajax | 36c | 375.2$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.07 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Shelbourne FC | 59c | 356.99$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Shelbourne FC | 58c | 341$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.53 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Shelbourne FC | 57c | 314.88$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.21 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed AFC Ajax | 42c | 247.63$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Shelbourne FC | 59c | 232$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked AFC Ajax | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed AFC Ajax | 40c | 151$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed AFC Ajax | 32c | 141.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked AFC Ajax | 43c | 137$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Shelbourne FC | 57c | 115.63$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed AFC Ajax | 42c | 112.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked AFC Ajax | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Shelbourne FC | 58c | 86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…6a8abacked AFC Ajax | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed AFC Ajax | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed AFC Ajax | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed AFC Ajax | 43c | 69.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked AFC Ajax | 35c | 68.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed AFC Ajax | 41c | 56.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Shelbourne FC | 57c | 55.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed AFC Ajax | 43c | 38.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed AFC Ajax | 40c | 32.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed AFC Ajax | 43c | 25.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed AFC Ajax | 43c | 24.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Shelbourne FC | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Shelbourne FC | 70c | 18.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)this page
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: AFC Ajax O/U 1.5Over won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 0.5Over won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5Over won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5Over won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5Under won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 5.5Under won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: Shelbourne FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: Shelbourne FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: Shelbourne FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: Team to AdvanceAFC Ajax won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)Shelbourne FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.