Europa Conference League · resolved market
Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe26e0987dc0c70e6334d980e0ecb170d9e3f80df59c7152243d2d7faf9388b56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 3,856$2,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.48 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 61c | 2,019$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.69 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…4cbfbacked Over | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.94 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked Over | 35c | 1,090$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.73 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 24c | 763.68$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.91 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 759.16$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.15 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 38c | 749.93$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.65 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 40c | 461$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.62 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 21c | 396.47$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6460…13cebacked Over | 42c | 366.53$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 29c | 340.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 40c | 324.08$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.45 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…faaebacked Over | 62c | 319.74$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.24 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +43%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 56c | 304.26$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.25 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 75c | 300.76$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.47 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Under | 40c | 278.12$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.87 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 56c | 261.36$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 79c | 259.71$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Under | 76c | 228.96$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.22 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 45c | 222.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 47c | 216.4$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.83 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 61c | 193$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed Over | 12c | 184.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 42c | 182.51$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 64c | 140.01$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 59c | 138.38$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 31c | 115.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 53c | 105$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 63c | 104.01$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ff…879cbacked Under | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Over | 39c | 90.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 60c | 88.12$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 41c | 76.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…2dbabacked Under | 40c | 70.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 60c | 65.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 70c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…6a8abacked Over | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Under | 58c | 57.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Under | 61c | 56.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 57c | 46.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 80c | 40.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 71c | 38.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 80c | 35.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Under | 77c | 31.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46ca…ac4cbacked Under | 79c | 27.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Under | 60c | 26.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 54c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 47c | 22.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 48c | 21.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Under | 60c | 21.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 106 | 27.4%29 W · 77 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…4716backed Under | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 88 | 69.3%61 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5this page
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: AFC Ajax O/U 1.5Over won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 0.5Over won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5Over won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5Over won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 5.5Under won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: Shelbourne FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: Shelbourne FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: Shelbourne FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Shelbourne FC vs. AFC Ajax: Team to AdvanceAFC Ajax won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)Shelbourne FC won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)Shelbourne FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.