Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb45e5e94029a020a527bed186f74e2c9fc0466d6eb8b9793dc2ae892d8608911
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunderland AFCof Newcastle United FC, Sunderland AFC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,985 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sunderland AFC | 77c | 42,795$32,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,943.45 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Newcastle United FC | 25c | 33,139$8,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,283.44 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Newcastle United FC | 15c | 6,025$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.09 | 459 | 36.2%166 W · 293 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Newcastle United FC | 19c | 1,250$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.5 | 131 | 32.1%42 W · 89 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Newcastle United FC | 17c | 1,209$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed Newcastle United FC | 29c | 409.14$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.65 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…2faabacked Newcastle United FC | 26c | 318.02$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Newcastle United FC | 20c | 251.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 351 | 34.8%122 W · 229 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Newcastle United FC | 19c | 158.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7291…3d0fbacked Newcastle United FC | 27c | 143.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…3e87backed Newcastle United FC | 29c | 121.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde66…be48backed Newcastle United FC | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c9…748cbacked Sunderland AFC | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Sunderland AFC | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 412 | 60.2%248 W · 164 L | +22.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe90…5ce2backed Newcastle United FC | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…1e75backed Sunderland AFC | 72c | 24.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Sunderland AFC | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf986…6833backed Sunderland AFC | 79c | 14.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-2.5)this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Sunderland AFC won
- Spread: Sunderland AFC (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.