TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sunderland AFCof Newcastle United FC, Sunderland AFC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$236,924

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,924 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd9c4…6f95backed Newcastle United FC36c176,627$63,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,602.9216040.6%65 W · 95 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Sunderland AFC65c124,419$80,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,045.266,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Newcastle United FC38c14,344$5,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,450.689746.4%45 W · 52 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Sunderland AFC65c14,057$9,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,967.3921253.8%114 W · 98 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Sunderland AFC62c8,242$5,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,131.817557.1%100 W · 75 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea00…c1f1backed Sunderland AFC64c7,000$4,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5209272.8%67 W · 25 L+20.5wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+47.1%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Newcastle United FC53c6,954$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7003735.1%13 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Sunderland AFC62c5,595$3,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,122.112,55847.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Newcastle United FC13c5,588$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.4445936.2%166 W · 293 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Sunderland AFC64c5,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80033057%188 W · 142 L+17.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43b6…9a9bbacked Sunderland AFC52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920.171560%9 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+27.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Sunderland AFC63c4,000$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,48018362.3%114 W · 69 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Sunderland AFC49c3,820$1,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,954.734,76841.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Sunderland AFC64c3,576$2,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.367361.6%45 W · 28 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Sunderland AFC64c3,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08083459.4%495 W · 339 L+25.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a39…a189backed Sunderland AFC64c3,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0801675%12 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+38.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Sunderland AFC64c2,549$1,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.089254.3%50 W · 42 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Newcastle United FC37c1,939$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.4151750.1%259 W · 258 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Newcastle United FC32c1,729$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.0113132.1%42 W · 89 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf3d…fd74backed Sunderland AFC66c1,559$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.272245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Sunderland AFC65c1,467$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.649753.7%267 W · 230 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa054…07c2backed Newcastle United FC53c1,400$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7402119%4 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.23per pick42cpaid-65.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Sunderland AFC64c1,325$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.4521056.7%119 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc39…1564backed Sunderland AFC64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3607268.1%49 W · 23 L+13.8wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+42%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Sunderland AFC64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36036956.9%210 W · 159 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Sunderland AFC64c940$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.429259.2%173 W · 119 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Sunderland AFC64c938.87$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.8923250.9%118 W · 114 L+0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Newcastle United FC33c749.94$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25018123.2%42 W · 139 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd705…fb7cbacked Newcastle United FC48c748.85$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Newcastle United FC33c681.82$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22519244.3%85 W · 107 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcff6…09bdbacked Sunderland AFC62c645.16$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.162055%11 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick61cpaid+3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Newcastle United FC33c606.06$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004822.9%11 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Sunderland AFC62c521.13$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.0314258.5%83 W · 59 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Newcastle United FC7c505.13$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3641343.3%179 W · 234 L-2.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Sunderland AFC64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18065557.7%378 W · 277 L+26.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Sunderland AFC64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18060557.5%348 W · 257 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Sunderland AFC69c433.83$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.835255.8%29 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Sunderland AFC62c431$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.788146.9%38 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Sunderland AFC63c400$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14823258.2%135 W · 97 L+13.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Sunderland AFC64c400$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14435056.9%199 W · 151 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Sunderland AFC63c375.55$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.9575850%379 W · 379 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Sunderland AFC64c370.75$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.7425348.2%122 W · 131 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Newcastle United FC38c368.42$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14038040.5%154 W · 226 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Sunderland AFC64c360$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.619357.5%111 W · 82 L+16.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Sunderland AFC64c350$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12637557.3%215 W · 160 L+21.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Sunderland AFC64c350$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12635157.8%203 W · 148 L+18.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Sunderland AFC63c323.5$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.4461143.7%267 W · 344 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe44c…f15cbacked Sunderland AFC65c303.58$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.45850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Newcastle United FC33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010847.2%51 W · 57 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ee4…8c98backed Newcastle United FC33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007846.2%36 W · 42 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Sunderland AFC64c300$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10859958.9%353 W · 246 L+26.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Sunderland AFC64c300$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10837958%220 W · 159 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd810…2eb8backed Sunderland AFC64c300$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1085068%34 W · 16 L+8.2wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+36.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Sunderland AFC64c280$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.836259.1%214 W · 148 L+23.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3248…8ba9backed Newcastle United FC54c266.91$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.984555.6%25 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Sunderland AFC62c265$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.772249.9%360 W · 362 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fd5…9801backed Newcastle United FC38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Sunderland AFC64c252.08$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.8542658%247 W · 179 L+24.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a8f…5259backed Sunderland AFC64c250$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Sunderland AFC64c250$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9046660.5%282 W · 184 L+30.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Sunderland AFC64c250$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9056158.6%329 W · 232 L+29.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Sunderland AFC64c250$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9038358.2%223 W · 160 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Sunderland AFC67c249.99$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.596443.7%421 W · 543 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Sunderland AFC64c240$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.433057%188 W · 142 L+17.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Sunderland AFC64c240$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.432357.6%186 W · 137 L+17.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Sunderland AFC64c240$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.481559%481 W · 334 L+32.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Sunderland AFC65c235.97$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.893661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Newcastle United FC38c235$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.330059.7%179 W · 121 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Newcastle United FC38c233$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5415534.2%53 W · 102 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x68cc…d976backed Sunderland AFC63c219.05$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.058259.8%49 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Sunderland AFC67c218.98$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.2611866.1%78 W · 40 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Sunderland AFC64c210$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.67261.1%44 W · 28 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Sunderland AFC64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7226158.2%152 W · 109 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Sunderland AFC64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7237554.9%206 W · 169 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Sunderland AFC64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7230554.8%167 W · 138 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Sunderland AFC64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7225456.3%143 W · 111 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Sunderland AFC64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7226058.5%152 W · 108 L+15.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Sunderland AFC64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7232656.7%185 W · 141 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Sunderland AFC64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7236758.3%214 W · 153 L+23.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1b6…0bd5backed Sunderland AFC64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721275%9 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x90f9…e894backed Sunderland AFC64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7217464.9%113 W · 61 L+16.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+21.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Sunderland AFC64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7228255.7%157 W · 125 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Sunderland AFC64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7226959.9%161 W · 108 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Sunderland AFC64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7232755.7%182 W · 145 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Sunderland AFC64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7231557.8%182 W · 133 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked Sunderland AFC50c182.49$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.64933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Sunderland AFC64c180$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.827758.8%163 W · 114 L+17.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Sunderland AFC64c175.64$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2332255.9%180 W · 142 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed Sunderland AFC64c168$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.91855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Sunderland AFC67c167.51$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.281,24042.2%523 W · 717 L-29.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x862a…d26bbacked Sunderland AFC68c160.6$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.391172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+41.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5157…942bbacked Sunderland AFC63c157.47$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.261250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Sunderland AFC65c156.31$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.719556.8%54 W · 41 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1691…f891backed Sunderland AFC68c155.56$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.782560%15 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65b5…a9f7backed Sunderland AFC64c150$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5414262.7%89 W · 53 L+12.2wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Sunderland AFC64c150$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5433156.8%188 W · 143 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Sunderland AFC64c150$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5429657.8%171 W · 125 L+16.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Sunderland AFC64c150$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5427661.6%170 W · 106 L+22.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+19.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5af1…f988backed Sunderland AFC64c150$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5414265.5%93 W · 49 L+14.9wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+23.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Sunderland AFC64c140$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.432158.6%188 W · 133 L+18.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.