Premier League · resolved market
Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6bd3457ae57b0a9afd3f293a82712641768259421bbdebaf4026d49278b2edd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,936 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf3d…fd74backed Under | 23c | 2,852$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.54 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 19c | 1,469$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.71 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd6…686fbacked Over | 78c | 1,299$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.78 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 20c | 1,250$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.45 | 131 | 32.1%42 W · 89 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 18c | 1,193$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.28 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 77c | 936.99$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.51 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 24c | 601.9$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.79 | 223 | 35.4%79 W · 144 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 6c | 539.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Under | 8c | 525.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 10c | 512.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 76c | 482.47$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.84 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc99f…43c5backed Over | 77c | 466.14$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.14 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc29e…a2cabacked Under | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2605…2b17backed Over | 77c | 337.66$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.66 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 23c | 316.16$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 119 | 69.7%83 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 23c | 249.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 80c | 230$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Over | 80c | 182.5$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Under | 21c | 180.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 23c | 179.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…e4d2backed Over | 78c | 173.54$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 77c | 171.58$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 23c | 143.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 300 | 59.7%179 W · 121 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…ff11backed Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 77cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…1d41backed Over | 76c | 125.1$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…4676backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Over | 76c | 119$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked Under | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 41.8%81 W · 113 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd71…6714backed Over | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 72cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 28c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 457 | 51.2%234 W · 223 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb4…68c3backed Over | 76c | 65.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…c65dbacked Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 250 | 57.6%144 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 21c | 59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Under | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb2…9e4ebacked Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 240 | 62.5%150 W · 90 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…c61cbacked Over | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 87 | 64.4%56 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…39e5backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4929…b9f9backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cb…126cbacked Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e9…736dbacked Over | 77c | 24.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 395 | 61.3%242 W · 153 L | -21.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Over | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Over | 76c | 18.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…8aedbacked Over | 77c | 18.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…c7acbacked Over | 80c | 15.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 412 | 60.2%248 W · 164 L | +22.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…fe2abacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…8d7abacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 1.5this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Sunderland AFC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-2.5)Sunderland AFC won
- Spread: Sunderland AFC (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.