Premier League · resolved market
Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc84a852f8d7b71371dccb59e2ec92c26563ac15f8472d8231d8aafb45ba8bf40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,002 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 10c | 3,114$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.87 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 15c | 1,250$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.79 | 131 | 32.1%42 W · 89 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 18c | 1,113$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa6…4465backed Under | 78c | 1,034$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.47 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Over | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 79c | 822.78$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.78 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 3c | 513$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 412 | 43.4%179 W · 233 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 436.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 4,696 | 41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 279 | 55.9%156 W · 123 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…6282backed Over | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 3c | 345.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 497 | 53.7%267 W · 230 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…4632backed Over | 5c | 245.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 76c | 188$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c48…afe7backed Over | 17c | 181.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 20c | 155.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 223 | 35.4%79 W · 144 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 21c | 150.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,923 | 42.4%815 W · 1,108 L | -42.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…700bbacked Over | 15c | 142.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3d…fd74backed Over | 12c | 106.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 15c | 83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…6865backed Under | 76c | 73.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1f…6823backed Under | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c9…748cbacked Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…8cf8backed Under | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 4.5this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Sunderland AFC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-2.5)Sunderland AFC won
- Spread: Sunderland AFC (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.