Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb46205b56aac8a4fe07454a0caed44d9c7707c823bf440ec5cc3af50e4cdf371
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 0c | 4,830$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,038$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 4c | 660.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…3145backed Yes | 4c | 526.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 31c | 393.46$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 6c | 357.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 287.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 5c | 283.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 18c | 260.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 59c | 163.17$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 23c | 162$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 160.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 156$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 7c | 148.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 20c | 139.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e2…bfb6backed Yes | 28c | 129.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf529…3ee9backed Yes | 12c | 124.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 26c | 124.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 13c | 124.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 49c | 121.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 46c | 104.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 66c | 95.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 55c | 91.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 59c | 88.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 38c | 85.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed Yes | 61c | 82.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 82.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 19c | 74.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…dd19backed Yes | 22c | 66.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 62.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 37c | 61.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 59.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 57.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 56.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 43c | 52.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 42c | 50.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 49.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 38c | 46.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 48c | 45.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 65c | 44.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 42c | 43.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 40.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…74efbacked Yes | 52c | 38.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 67c | 37.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 79c | 36.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 33.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 50c | 32.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 31.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 34c | 31.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 57c | 30.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 50c | 25.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86c…2a30backed Yes | 66c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -5.3wins | -0.48per pick | 67cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 60c | 23.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked Yes | 65c | 21.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 74c | 21.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…7421backed Yes | 62c | 17.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 74c | 17.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 15.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 74c | 14.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 74c | 14.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.