Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8ab4e7198c2b3a6685136f488158ff59c62eb04eef6f114cf63147168a568ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 29c | 3,431$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.02 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 1c | 2,989$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 15c | 710.84$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.93 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…edcfbacked No | 69c | 537.49$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.91 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 2c | 530$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 34c | 522.12$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.54 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 514.33$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc56…0546backed Yes | 46c | 359.38$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 53c | 350.45$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…3145backed Yes | 5c | 339.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 29c | 299.02$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 55c | 294.95$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.89 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 66c | 268.35$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.53 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 246.6$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fd…7e7ebacked Yes | 9c | 219.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 213.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 173.07$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 61c | 169.31$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.65 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 17c | 168.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 63c | 164.52$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 21c | 154$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 19c | 146.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 143.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b5…73eebacked Yes | 21c | 140.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed Yes | 10c | 132.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 123.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 56c | 121.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 119.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 39c | 113.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 24c | 111.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 10c | 110$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 21c | 109.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 78c | 106.82$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 17c | 106.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 69c | 101.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 15c | 100.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e2…bfb6backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…8799backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 19c | 99.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 15c | 98.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 77c | 96.46$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 95.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e17…4dd9backed No | 78c | 93.53$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 79c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2e…498dbacked Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…e3f0backed Yes | 46c | 71.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 69.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…fefebacked Yes | 74c | 69.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 36c | 65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 62.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 28c | 61.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked Yes | 20c | 58.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 70c | 56.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 56.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 26c | 55.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2087backed Yes | 35c | 53.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 62c | 50.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 39c | 48.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 61c | 47.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 71c | 42.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 41.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 37c | 40.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fee…29acbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 74c | 38.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 54c | 36.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 60c | 33.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 49c | 32.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bf…ef7cbacked Yes | 55c | 32.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 36c | 31.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 41c | 28.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…7421backed No | 60c | 28.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 78c | 26.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 54c | 26.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 77c | 25.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 55c | 25.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked No | 63c | 23.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 20.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 77c | 19.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 63c | 16.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 66c | 16.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 71c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aac…bc3bbacked No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1c…5650backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 80cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.