Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b3cdcf97579da6dc2b7a03d14220a970e9a1eac93995af28c1e829488626538
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 2c | 7,599$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.96 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 3,855$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…4132backed Yes | 5c | 2,442$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…fff3backed Yes | 1c | 1,799$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 49c | 723.84$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 16c | 605.67$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.41 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf544…8822backed Yes | 79c | 541.09$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 63c | 540.21$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.91 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 69c | 512.59$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.39 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 463.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 14c | 359.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.34 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 16c | 349.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.53 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…079bbacked Yes | 77c | 311.92$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 64c | 298.4$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.54 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…e3f0backed Yes | 45c | 297.3$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.77 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 231$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 38c | 224.29$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.67 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 13c | 219.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 42c | 216.35$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.3 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc56…0546backed Yes | 48c | 198.24$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 53c | 188.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 57c | 183.91$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.62 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebf…a01dbacked No | 55c | 181.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 41c | 176.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2401…0753backed No | 35c | 176.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.27 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 29c | 172.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 19c | 171.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.43 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 157.12$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…cf5cbacked Yes | 27c | 156.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…ceb0backed No | 54c | 155.45$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 34c | 148.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.3 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 77c | 145.14$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.73 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 49c | 142.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 23c | 139.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.48 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed No | 59c | 134.4$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked No | 9c | 130$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.3 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 32c | 130$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.85 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 45c | 129.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 62c | 127.54$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 58c | 126.18$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf765…9b7dbacked Yes | 13c | 126.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5154…aa32backed No | 56c | 124.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 13c | 121.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 53c | 120.36$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 61c | 118.95$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 14c | 117.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.92 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 72c | 114.54$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 9c | 113.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 19c | 110$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 17c | 108.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…f2ecbacked Yes | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 26c | 99.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.94 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 73c | 98.62$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 44c | 97.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 19c | 97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 92.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 25c | 90$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…edcfbacked No | 32c | 87.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 51c | 87.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…f861backed Yes | 15c | 86.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 45c | 86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 46c | 85.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked No | 24c | 83.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 46c | 81.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 31c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 72c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2e…498dbacked Yes | 77c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 25c | 76.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 43c | 69.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed No | 29c | 68.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad6…29f2backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb005…146dbacked No | 60c | 64.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…94b8backed Yes | 31c | 64.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 63.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 20c | 62.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 62.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 78c | 62.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…462ebacked No | 24c | 61.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 59.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 70c | 58.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 33c | 58.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 80c | 57.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 76c | 52.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed No | 56c | 52.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 44c | 51.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f6a5backed No | 37c | 51.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 59c | 50.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 68c | 50.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…ee36backed Yes | 34c | 49.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 41c | 48.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…fd73backed No | 27c | 46.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.