MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4df7f662d406f335197de33b09a24767496f0878942d636f963ca746569e4a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 56c | 66,805$37,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,398.52 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Over | 44c | 53,513$23,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,545.86 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 10,562$4,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,621.18 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Under | 56c | 5,358$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,357.5 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 44c | 4,180$1,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.2 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe98c…8792backed Under | 55c | 2,520$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Over | 45c | 2,296$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.2 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 44c | 2,033$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.47 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 54c | 1,980$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.86 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 44c | 1,877$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.99 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 44c | 1,798$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.99 | 520 | 45.2%235 W · 285 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 55c | 1,780$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 1,268$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.41 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Over | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 59c | 854.1$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.33 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 56c | 795.51$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.02 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 712.54$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.35 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 44c | 700.91$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.4 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 44c | 636$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.84 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 44c | 581.87$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.2 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 56c | 474.66$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.69 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 44c | 441.98$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.47 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 20c | 343.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 334.62$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.89 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Under | 50c | 263.86$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.21 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 56c | 241.07$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.07 | 816 | 57.1%466 W · 350 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b22…9431backed Under | 55c | 234$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Over | 46c | 205.09$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.34 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 200.8$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.28 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 39c | 175.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…7a09backed Under | 58c | 170.14$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 56c | 162$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 455 | 45.7%208 W · 247 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 45c | 156$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 150.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 45c | 142.71$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 45c | 135$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 55c | 111.04$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 875 | 52.7%461 W · 414 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 111$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Under | 59c | 97.74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 56c | 93.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 92.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 50c | 91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Under | 50c | 91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 64c | 83.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…a02dbacked Over | 46c | 78.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 75.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 45c | 70.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Over | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Over | 43c | 67.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 42c | 60.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…df9bbacked Over | 46c | 59.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Under | 56c | 58.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 205 | 51.7%106 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…b5e5backed Over | 35c | 58.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 44c | 58.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 54c | 52.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb9…c8fabacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed Over | 46c | 43.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Over | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 44c | 35.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 55c | 33.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 43c | 30.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 343 | 55.4%190 W · 153 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Over | 44c | 25.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.