Tennis · resolved market
Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Caty McNally
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4ea714c9db810d85a7b46c0665ba88142e27324125cdc288c6d0935fe4e9a05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aryna Sabalenkaof Aryna Sabalenka, Caty McNally
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $256,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $256,853 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Caty McNally | 4c | 25,889$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.03 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Caty McNally | 5c | 23,059$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.97 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Caty McNally | 5c | 19,045$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.23 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Caty McNally | 4c | 17,663$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.47 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked Caty McNally | 8c | 13,065$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.84 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Caty McNally | 0c | 8,375$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Caty McNally | 7c | 7,035$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.45 | 203 | 36%73 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Caty McNally | 6c | 5,508$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.39 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Caty McNally | 6c | 4,642$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.74 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Caty McNally | 7c | 4,533$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.39 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Caty McNally | 7c | 4,307$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.46 | 747 | 43.6%326 W · 421 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Caty McNally | 6c | 4,240$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.4 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…0d19backed Caty McNally | 7c | 4,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 428 | 39.7%170 W · 258 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Caty McNally | 7c | 3,463$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.43 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a2…6abebacked Caty McNally | 6c | 3,096$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.75 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed Caty McNally | 7c | 2,351$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.59 | 661 | 39.3%260 W · 401 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Caty McNally | 5c | 2,165$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.26 | 123 | 22%27 W · 96 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Caty McNally | 5c | 2,017$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaa…ddfdbacked Caty McNally | 3c | 2,008$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 273 | 46.5%127 W · 146 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Caty McNally | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 485 | 52.8%256 W · 229 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Caty McNally | 3c | 1,996$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 1,206 | 8%96 W · 1,110 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Caty McNally | 6c | 1,989$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.65 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…59ddbacked Caty McNally | 9c | 1,467$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 244 | 38.9%95 W · 149 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Caty McNally | 6c | 1,153$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Caty McNally | 6c | 1,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc679…e427backed Caty McNally | 7c | 900.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ce…0a8ebacked Caty McNally | 7c | 900$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Caty McNally | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 609 | 43.3%264 W · 345 L | -24.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Caty McNally | 3c | 697.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Caty McNally | 6c | 664.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Caty McNally | 6c | 600$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Caty McNally | 5c | 525$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0d…5d0cbacked Caty McNally | 8c | 503.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Caty McNally | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…42ddbacked Caty McNally | 4c | 377$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…84e4backed Caty McNally | 3c | 343.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Caty McNally | 5c | 322$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Caty McNally | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebde…1de0backed Caty McNally | 4c | 263.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 891 | 34.3%306 W · 585 L | -40.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Caty McNally | 8c | 254.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…d7a8backed Caty McNally | 7c | 176.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Caty McNally | 11c | 159$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Caty McNally | 7c | 154.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Caty McNallythis page
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs McNallySabalenka won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs McNally (+1.5)Sabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.