Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb522a373cab3acb391f5b38075261edfc13f995c2e3eeeea2a52b6f6a786af68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 32c | 1,603$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.9 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 65c | 361.88$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.34 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 290$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 285$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 177.47$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 173.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 168.88$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 35c | 153.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 400 | 30.3%121 W · 279 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 35c | 146.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 64c | 140.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 309 | 67%207 W · 102 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 69c | 130$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 802 | 47.3%379 W · 423 L | -29.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 104.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 69c | 101$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 269 | 35.7%96 W · 173 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 64c | 99.23$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 66c | 97.06$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 63c | 90.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 59c | 81.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 354 | 21.5%76 W · 278 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 65c | 76.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 74.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 68c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 940 | 44.8%421 W · 519 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 68c | 66.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 65c | 57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 1,451 | 52.3%759 W · 692 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 33c | 51.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 1,246 | 30%374 W · 872 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 855 | 48.7%416 W · 439 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 36c | 49.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 78c | 47.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 470 | 47.2%222 W · 248 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6128…e245backed Yes | 56c | 44.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 37c | 41.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 333 | 66.4%221 W · 112 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 64c | 38.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 35c | 37.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 36c | 37.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 908 | 29.2%265 W · 643 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed Yes | 36c | 35.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 36c | 35.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 68c | 34.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 68c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b6…6c51backed No | 68c | 33.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 65c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 312 | 38.1%119 W · 193 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 499 | 51.7%258 W · 241 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 64c | 28.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 63c | 22.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked No | 64c | 20.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 63c | 20.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 383 | 46.7%179 W · 204 L | +16.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 62c | 17.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 255 | 69%176 W · 79 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 64c | 16.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e05…b1f2backed No | 64c | 15.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed No | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…664fbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9901backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on August 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.