Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8b66bd58e91942f8bd58c6f35c1802e355a6106174f0482bc0d42670aa5ca32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 28c | 1,146$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.85 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 42c | 419.28$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.86 | 354 | 21.5%76 W · 278 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 70c | 371.3$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.39 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 302.81$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.22 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 222.76$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 22c | 221$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 1,246 | 30%374 W · 872 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 61c | 217.15$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.46 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 35c | 152.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 400 | 30.3%121 W · 279 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 58c | 146.5$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 80c | 124.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 344 | 58.7%202 W · 142 L | +18.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 71c | 119.45$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 56c | 118.46$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 557 | 42.5%237 W · 320 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 18c | 116$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 183 | 19.7%36 W · 147 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 63c | 107.79$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 451 | 67%302 W · 149 L | +39.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 71c | 100.68$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 53c | 100.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 148 | 28.4%42 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 94.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 37c | 93.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 30c | 88.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 908 | 29.2%265 W · 643 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 35c | 86.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 940 | 44.8%421 W · 519 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 35c | 85.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 30c | 81.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 269 | 35.7%96 W · 173 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 81.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 72c | 79.46$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 77.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 68c | 75.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…7df1backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 74.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 70c | 62.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 29c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed Yes | 32c | 57.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 83 | 74.7%62 W · 21 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 39c | 57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 1,451 | 52.3%759 W · 692 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 70c | 56.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 28c | 51.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed No | 68c | 50.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…242fbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd24…f9d6backed Yes | 43c | 46.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 65c | 45.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…a1c1backed No | 72c | 44.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 28c | 44.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 62c | 43.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 442 | 51.4%227 W · 215 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 29c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 73c | 41.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 37.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 36.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 383 | 46.7%179 W · 204 L | +16.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 51c | 34.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 66c | 30.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 213 | 52.6%112 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 156 | 75.6%118 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 76c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed No | 70c | 25.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 71c | 25.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 197 | 50.8%100 W · 97 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 24.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 66c | 22.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40de…66bdbacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9901backed No | 72c | 20.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…664fbacked No | 73c | 20.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…56babacked Yes | 61c | 20.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 515 | 52%268 W · 247 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…1ca0backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d41…b5c1backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 71c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 245 | 70.6%173 W · 72 L | +22.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on August 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.