Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Malisheva vs. Hibernian FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb52d456866e80af6b495bc0a8a73c00d2327d2b719b79132d9558cf143bd8f82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe96d…ba90backed Over | 17c | 1,820$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 35c | 888.7$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.31 | 658 | 35.6%234 W · 424 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 76c | 814.63$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.29 | 2,175 | 37.6%817 W · 1,358 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 65c | 750$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 1,046 | 50.2%525 W · 521 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 4c | 734$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 152 | 40.8%62 W · 90 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Under | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 21c | 282.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 1,611 | 38.8%625 W · 986 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe4…70c1backed Over | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 65c | 199.05$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 695 | 48.9%340 W · 355 L | +19.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 66c | 184.71$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb763…cce5backed Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 65c | 139.52$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 164 | 43.9%72 W · 92 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 75c | 126.2$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 65c | 105.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 16c | 104$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 2,344 | 41.6%976 W · 1,368 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 65c | 90.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 662 | 50.6%335 W · 327 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff7…fc2bbacked Over | 35c | 84.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 65c | 77.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 15c | 68.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 571 | 49.6%283 W · 288 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9c…601abacked Over | 35c | 54.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 75c | 53.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f78…3546backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…0204backed Under | 66c | 22.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 66c | 20.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…c84cbacked Under | 66c | 18.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Under | 65c | 16.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…802bbacked Under | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +7.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Malisheva vs. Hibernian FC: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Malisheva vs. Hibernian FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Malisheva vs. Hibernian FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Malisheva vs. Hibernian FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Malisheva vs. Hibernian FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Malisheva vs. Hibernian FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- FC Malisheva vs. Hibernian FC: FC Malisheva O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Malisheva vs. Hibernian FC: FC Malisheva O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Malisheva vs. Hibernian FC: Hibernian FC O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Malisheva vs. Hibernian FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Malisheva vs. Hibernian FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Malisheva vs. Hibernian FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Malisheva vs. Hibernian FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Malisheva vs. Hibernian FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Malisheva (-1.5)FC Malisheva won
- Spread: FC Malisheva (-2.5)Hibernian FC won
- Spread: Hibernian FC (-1.5)FC Malisheva won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.