NFL · resolved market
Bengals vs. Eagles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb53219a95f6a11a7ffb288d76f16e0aedd631ef435e3581d663c20631e307c4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eagles of Bengals, Eagles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Bengals | 0c | 4,393$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Eagles | 30c | 3,900$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,730 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Bengals | 5c | 3,213$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.25 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -42%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Bengals | 1c | 2,819$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +413.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…c0b8backed Bengals | 70c | 2,618$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,832.84 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Eagles | 35c | 1,795$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.34 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Bengals | 1c | 1,332$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Eagles | 32c | 1,171$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.42 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Bengals | 21c | 1,155$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…9958backed Bengals | 11c | 728.47$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Bengals | 69c | 699.99$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bengals | 68c | 685.94$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.44 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…d871backed Bengals | 70c | 653.21$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.08 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Eagles | 30c | 643.26$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.28 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Eagles | 74c | 519.88$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.67 | 195 | 51.3%100 W · 95 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Bengals | 14c | 350$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 142 | 15.5%22 W · 120 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Bengals | 66c | 295$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.7 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Eagles | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Bengals | 7c | 285.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb683…61b1backed Eagles | 41c | 246.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.34 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Eagles | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked Eagles | 31c | 166.77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.07 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Bengals | 75c | 150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Bengals | 67c | 121.21$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.21 | 106 | 24.5%26 W · 80 L | -12.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…a88abacked Bengals | 70c | 107.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…19f2backed Eagles | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…424bbacked Bengals | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x103c…232bbacked Eagles | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Bengals | 67c | 52.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Eagles | 29c | 51.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Bengals | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcca…18f5backed Bengals | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Bengals | 66c | 31.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Bengals | 74c | 24.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85e1…0e40backed Bengals | 73c | 16.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.