MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb56bc9a92a09ac75ee7a1d7f215b9b8b18c3baf452360a9189b97a61b45ef033
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 7,595$2,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,607.69 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed New York Yankees | 59c | 4,495$2,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,662.3 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 2,628$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.52 | 991 | 49.9%495 W · 496 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked New York Yankees | 56c | 2,260$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.6 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked New York Yankees | 55c | 1,895$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.22 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 1,105$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.64 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed New York Yankees | 58c | 1,010$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.51 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked New York Yankees | 55c | 723.06$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.68 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 525$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.25 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 491.39$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.18 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed New York Yankees | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 445$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.75 | 920 | 50%460 W · 460 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked New York Yankees | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed New York Yankees | 65c | 347.79$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.39 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed New York Yankees | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 284$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.72 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked New York Yankees | 40c | 262.73$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.09 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 56c | 212.46$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.06 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed New York Yankees | 60c | 205.1$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked New York Yankees | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked New York Yankees | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed New York Yankees | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 9c | 113.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.61 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…53a7backed New York Yankees | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed New York Yankees | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 49.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed New York Yankees | 41c | 46.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed New York Yankees | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked New York Yankees | 57c | 41.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed New York Yankees | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked New York Yankees | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed New York Yankees | 55c | 30.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…009fbacked New York Yankees | 55c | 24.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed New York Yankees | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…fec6backed New York Yankees | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked New York Yankees | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed New York Yankees | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked New York Yankees | 57c | 17.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.