TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or below on June 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,335
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,162

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,335 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8882…03fbbacked No34c1,331$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.6951733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No14c518.18$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.194,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No22c490.93$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7965625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed Yes51c460.67$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.7164460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xf8ad…c303backed Yes72c326.61$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.713177.4%24 W · 7 L+4.8wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+25%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes77c324.46$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.1953258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes77c324.1$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c302$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.5512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bf6…2529backed Yes74c273.47$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0123845.8%109 W · 129 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No21c239.95$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.276,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed No30c221$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2449547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked No13c210.04$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6536930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No6c197.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.841,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b70…12b4backed Yes66c193.46$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.085757.9%33 W · 24 L+10.1wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+77.2%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x5398…ceb0backed Yes62c191.28$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.244959.2%29 W · 20 L+10.6wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+63.5%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No6c187.91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.461,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked Yes66c178.86$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3142061.2%257 W · 163 L+19.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No6c174.77$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.494,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8f5d…3384backed No9c166.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.828270.2%198 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9006…9fb8backed Yes49c161.72$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.7127037.4%101 W · 169 L+12.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes65c153.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9579040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes29c152.12$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.9740525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x726e…aafbbacked Yes68c140.32$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7223269%160 W · 72 L+23.7wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+27.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdadb…1870backed Yes75c137.48$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3258922.8%134 W · 455 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3069…0cf2backed Yes70c133.66$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.143855.3%21 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed No24c124.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7424466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed No21c124.1$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6822728.6%65 W · 162 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedba…002dbacked No65c114.01$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.869679.2%76 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes60c110$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No15c109.74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5588650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No44c105.8$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.713,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes15c105.74$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3660519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes50c105.36$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4841051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes47c102$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.579,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes47c94.62$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3223035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No35c94.4$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.575,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No29c90.04$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.118,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes50c88.09$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.612,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6897…a4a4backed No30c85.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1619217.2%33 W · 159 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No17c82.42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.122,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf129…1edcbacked No28c76.23$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.412955.8%72 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No70c70.64$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4556543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No71c68.02$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9877851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No21c67.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes31c64.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.512,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e88…697dbacked Yes16c62.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.58343.4%36 W · 47 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes66c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5747738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No30c58.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5f88…da69backed No70c57.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4017949.2%88 W · 91 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes65c54.5$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.961,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes45c53$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9338655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No50c50.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2625358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab5e…47f6backed Yes35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.55935.6%21 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes24c49.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6929941.1%123 W · 176 L+20.8wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f61…840abacked Yes46c48.06$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7637570.7%265 W · 110 L+62.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xc26e…33cabacked Yes36c44.66$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.571741.2%7 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick23cpaid+104.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x24ac…c567backed Yes53c44.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.914231%13 W · 29 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes56c42.47$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.712,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bcf…c678backed Yes55c41.38$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.463100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+44.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes49c39.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.439346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed No33c38.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.931,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4030…bc87backed No41c37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.173265.6%21 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No39c35.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.791,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No53c32.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.321,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes58c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.324569.8%171 W · 74 L+30.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes61c31.47$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.345,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No40c29.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…abffbacked Yes60c28.29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3730665%199 W · 107 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5239…4134backed Yes71c27.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.938466.7%56 W · 28 L+9.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+36%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0e04…3475backed No44c27.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.932343.5%10 W · 13 L-4.7wins-0.20per pick64cpaid-35.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes80c26.72$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3410634.9%37 W · 69 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+59.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f7a…07a0backed Yes50c26.17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.149066.7%60 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57c5…76c2backed No49c26.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.856852.9%36 W · 32 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x438a…61c4backed No52c26.03$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5323143.3%100 W · 131 L+19.0wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes80c24.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0652446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed Yes65c23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0554857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.264960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.032,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef14…3edabacked No72c17.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3717744.6%79 W · 98 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x46ce…31a0backed Yes64c17.13$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb005…146dbacked Yes73c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.051172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick49cpaid+26.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.