Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb59d4458e7826f6bdd8b382307c730df4ad7b08f13e093d9362eeea110e65da1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 61c | 377.98$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.82 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 285.75$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 258.95$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 59c | 240.41$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.84 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 43c | 222.1$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.1 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 47c | 206.51$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.45 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 202.95$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 33c | 180.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.17 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 63c | 176$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 42c | 175$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 57c | 174.59$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.94 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…f7edbacked No | 62c | 165$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 48c | 163.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 159.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 152.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 57c | 150$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 145.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.92 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 55c | 137.62$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 57c | 134.13$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 40c | 125.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 68c | 122.88$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 27c | 121.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 40c | 121.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef0…6392backed Yes | 38c | 117.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 24c | 115.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 17c | 109.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 39c | 108.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 56c | 106.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 55c | 106.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 47c | 106.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x384f…58adbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.97 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 51c | 75.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 73.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 59c | 72.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 70.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 70.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 61c | 63.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 38c | 62.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 49c | 61.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 38c | 60.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 54c | 59.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 40c | 59.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked No | 61c | 57.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 44c | 57.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 79c | 57.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 54.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked Yes | 44c | 53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 46.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 44c | 45.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 43.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 66c | 43.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 37c | 42.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed Yes | 38c | 42.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 41.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 40.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 52c | 38.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…dbffbacked Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…e0d4backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 64c | 33.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 50c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 41c | 27.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 50c | 26.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…f823backed Yes | 42c | 25.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 72c | 24.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 60c | 21.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 52c | 20.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49d9…d032backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…f3c2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…26aabacked No | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 19.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 74c | 18.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 18.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 66c | 18.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 67c | 16.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.