MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5ae435234a6e154740712e0115238108e4eb5ee2d0f46f900630cf3b4cb50ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x085e…9aeabacked Over | 54c | 7,550$4,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,111.62 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 2,401$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.71 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 21c | 1,905$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.09 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 7c | 1,506$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 25c | 1,322$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.17 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 79c | 1,172$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 53c | 1,055$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.7 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 76c | 568.44$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.62 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 47c | 537.61$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.69 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 30c | 494.34$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.99 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 45c | 420$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Under | 46c | 329.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 46c | 285$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.9 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 9c | 267.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked Over | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 49c | 208.69$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.92 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Under | 47c | 201.88$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e9…d331backed Under | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 49c | 189.02$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.88 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 47c | 186.63$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.57 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Over | 21c | 108.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…39eebacked Under | 47c | 106.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 95.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…edf1backed Under | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 87.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2f…cddbbacked Over | 71c | 69.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…697cbacked Under | 48c | 54.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 47c | 43.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 35c | 39.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 51c | 34.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 48c | 33.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 54c | 31.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 54c | 28.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…8a8ebacked Over | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 47c | 25.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 609 | 41.4%252 W · 357 L | -22.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 74c | 23.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Under | 47c | 21.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 54c | 21.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Over | 54c | 20.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 529 | 55.6%294 W · 235 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.