MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dbd6408f2d6c9e25c1cb69c7d12cea897960ac49446185785c762902cdb8f21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 2,109$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.77 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc521…b46abacked New York Yankees | 41c | 2,036$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.18 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kansas City Royals | 59c | 1,610$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.11 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 999.65$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.79 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 986.74$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.04 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 51c | 937.98$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 773.25$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.68 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…91fbbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 758.78$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.86 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…9d0bbacked Kansas City Royals | 54c | 653.99$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.16 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed New York Yankees | 41c | 588.17$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.02 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed New York Yankees | 41c | 578.76$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.47 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kansas City Royals | 9c | 443.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked New York Yankees | 41c | 352.9$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.21 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Kansas City Royals | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed New York Yankees | 41c | 231.5$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.59 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 210.96$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.69 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Kansas City Royals | 6c | 202.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 174.13$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.22 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Kansas City Royals | 9c | 173.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked New York Yankees | 44c | 140.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 131.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 529 | 55.6%294 W · 235 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed New York Yankees | 39c | 118.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.28 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked New York Yankees | 41c | 117.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Kansas City Royals | 60c | 97.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked New York Yankees | 40c | 94.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Kansas City Royals | 50c | 91.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Kansas City Royals | 16c | 82.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed New York Yankees | 39c | 78.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Yankees | 39c | 76.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Kansas City Royals | 49c | 68.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 62.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked New York Yankees | 50c | 50.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Yankees | 42c | 49.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 40.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 40.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed New York Yankees | 39c | 37.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed New York Yankees | 78c | 31.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…d8b4backed New York Yankees | 39c | 29.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked New York Yankees | 39c | 29.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Yankees | 52c | 29.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 23.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Kansas City Royals | 47c | 22.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 20.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 19.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.